Jacksonville at 60% reads clean until you remember both teams walked in at 1-1, and the Patriots are a year removed from a Super Bowl appearance and still carry contender expectations. The home edge is real and the Jaguars score more comfortably, but New England's early-season points-per-game has been ugly enough to flatter the Jaguars in a way that may not hold once the offense settles. The trade is whether you buy Jacksonville's home form as signal or treat two weeks as noise on a roster that reached the Super Bowl last season. Early-season records are the thinnest evidence a market ever prices, and this one is pricing them hard.
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