Tampa at 79 percent reads like a home team laying more than a touchdown, and the point spread agrees. Both clubs opened 0-1, so this is early-season pricing off one game, not a body of work. Tampa's Week One loss at Cincinnati turned on four fumbles that handed the Bengals 24 points, which flatters Cleveland's 21 percent if you think the turnovers were noise rather than signal. The Browns opened at Jacksonville and lost 34-10, and Deshaun Watson under a resurgent Tampa pass rush is the risk the Cleveland side can't wave away. If you fade the favorite, you're trading on ball-security regression, not on the Browns being good.
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