Utah walks in ranked and 3-0, having outscored Idaho, Arkansas and Utah State by a combined margin that looks cartoonish, and the market makes the Utes a comfortable favorite of roughly a touchdown on the road. The catch is Ames, where Iowa State under a first-year staff plays close games at home and the Cyclones are 2-1 with the loss respectable. Utah's résumé is loud but built on overmatched opponents, so the fair spread depends on whether you trust 33-0 over Utah State as signal or fluff. The dense middle buckets from 7 to 14 points are where the real disagreement lives, and a slow, physical Big 12 opener compresses margins fast.
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