The consensus line has Texas favored by around 4.5 to 5.5 at Neyland, and the Kalshi ladder tracks it, with the four-and-a-half band trading near even money. Texas is fifth in adjusted expected points added per play while Tennessee drops to 63rd once schedule is accounted for, which is the case for laying the points. The case against is the venue and the run game, since Tennessee's attack averages nearly 300 rush yards behind freshman Faizon Brandon and home dogs in this spot don't need to win outright to cash. Watch Colin Simmons' status, since Texas' edge rush swings the margin.
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