San Diego at 55% reflects home field at Petco and Michael King on the mound in Game 1, the arm the Padres leaned on all season. The number the market seems to be underweighting is that Chicago went 5-1 against San Diego this year and beat the Padres in last year's wild card series, with Matthew Boyd, their probable starter, carrying a 1.66 postseason ERA across his career. Regular-season head-to-head and October are different animals, and King in a one-game-feel opener is exactly the profile that flattens a season-long edge. A single start compresses everything, which is why neither side deserves to trade far from a near even split.
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