Houston near 54% is the home Wild Card host, the AL West champion and No. 3 seed, with Yordan Alvarez in the MVP conversation after winning the batting title. Chicago at 47% is the story team, the first club ever to reach the playoffs after three straight 100-loss seasons, carrying three 30-homer bats in Murakami, Vargas and Montgomery. The catch is that Houston backed in without a winning record at 81-81, so the seeding oversells the gap, and the White Sox took the September 1 meeting in Houston 5-1. This is Game 1 of a best-of-three, so starting pitching and Alvarez's health drive it more than the seed line.
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