Atlanta hosts the entire best-of-three Wild Card Series at Truist Park and took the season series 9-4, which is why the Braves are favored in Game 1 despite Philadelphia's October pedigree. The wrinkle is pitching. Zack Wheeler pitched to clinch on the final day and will not be on full rest, so the Phillies' rotation edge is dulled for the opener. Philadelphia has won all three prior postseason series between these clubs, including the 2022 and 2023 NLDS upsets on the road, so recent history says home-field means less here than the price implies. A single game amplifies bullpen variance and one swing, so the honest range on this line is wider than the number suggests.
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