Pittsburgh at 60% at home in a game between two eliminated teams is essentially a pitching-and-lineup trade, since neither side has anything left to play for. The Pirates took the first two of this series, including a 2-0 shutout, and finish the year around .500 while the Cardinals sit a few games under. With both clubs out of contention, September roster churn and who actually takes the ball matter more than season-long records, so the moneyline is only as sharp as the day's starters. The case for St. Louis is simply that a six-point favorite in a meaningless game is thin margin, and late-season lineups get unpredictable.
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