The Yankees at 58% against a Twins team well under .500 looks like a mild favorite tax, and the pitching board complicates it. New York sits around 87-63 chasing seeding while Minnesota is closer to 70-80 and playing out the string, so motivation and roster quality both favor the road side. ESPN's model has this closer to 57-43, roughly where the price sits. Carlos Rodon on the mound for New York is the swing variable, because a day game with a flat lineup and a middling starter is exactly how a good team drops one it should win. Twins at 43% is not a discount, it's the correct number for a live underdog.
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