This one resolved on the field. Atletico beat Osasuna 2-1 at the Metropolitano on September 16, so the 71% priced on the home side paid, the 20% draw and 11% Osasuna did not. The pre-match read was straightforward, with Atletico coming off a 3-0 win at Real Sociedad and Osasuna dragging two straight defeats into Madrid, though the score line, a one-goal margin, matched the recent history between these clubs more than the 3-1 blowout some previews floated. If you were early on Atletico at a discount, the process was sound and so was the result. Nothing left to weigh here beyond how the closing price tracked the final.
Prices are probabilities — our guides cover how to read them, how markets settle, and how we find an edge.