This one already happened. After a summer chase from Arsenal and a public campaign to join Barcelona, Alvarez decided to stay at Atletico Madrid at least until January, ending the saga, and Atletico repeatedly made clear they would not sell to Barcelona. The market has priced the resolved outcome at 99% with the rest of the field pinned at 1%, which is what you'd expect for a next-club question the transfer window already answered. The residual risk isn't a mystery signing, it's how the market defines "next club" and whether a January move counts, so read the resolution language before treating 99% as free.
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