The 98% leg is the whole story, and it's the boring one. Haaland signed a nine-and-a-half-year deal in January 2025 that runs to 2034 and, per multiple reports, stripped out the release clauses from his old contract, so City hold full control of any exit. That structure is why the market treats a near-term move as a rounding error and everything else at 1 to 2%. Real Madrid keep circling and his father has floated the usual never-say-never lines, which is what keeps the long-shot legs from going to zero. Anyone trading the tail is paying for gossip against a contract designed specifically to make gossip expensive.
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