Mexico at 69% looks about right for a home side in form against a Peru team that just took a 4-1 loss to the USMNT and has won one of its last five. El Tri come off a round-of-16 run at their home World Cup and a 1-1 draw with Colombia, and they've handled Peru historically, winning the 2022 friendly 1-0. The case for fading the favorite is that this is a friendly, both coaches are experimenting with personnel post-World Cup, and lineups may look nothing like the first team by the hour mark. Rotation is the only real path to a Peru result or a tie.
Prices are probabilities — our guides cover how to read them, how markets settle, and how we find an edge.