Japan sits as the clear favorite at home in Rifu, and the case is straightforward. This is Diego Forlan's first match in charge of Uruguay, who arrive winless in seven on the road and missing Federico Valverde, while Moriyasu's side brings a settled system and a long unbeaten home run. The draw price reflects the usual friendly hazard, where neither side chases a result and rotation blunts the favorite's edge. What complicates the Japan side is exactly that friendly context, since a new Uruguay coach may not care about the scoreline and Japan may empty its bench. The tie is where the soft edge lives if you think this one drifts.
Prices are probabilities — our guides cover how to read them, how markets settle, and how we find an edge.