Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/21 - 9/27)

This ladder prices a Strait of Hormuz that is effectively shut, with IMF PortWatch clocking single-digit daily transits against a pre-crisis baseline near 85. The market treats 10 and 15 calls for the week as near-locks and prices meaningful doubt only above 25, which tells you where the real disagreement sits. Anything above 40 is treated as remote while attacks on tankers continue and Iran ties reopening to US concessions. The trade here is less about the war and more about the counting method, since PortWatch and private trackers have diverged sharply before, and a data revision can settle the middle rungs as much as any diplomacy.