Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/14 - 9/20)

These weekly Hormuz transit-count markets reward whoever knows the running tally, because the ladder is just a distribution around the base rate of tanker traffic through the strait. The board has more than 20 calls at 86% and more than 25 at 63%, with the odds falling off a cliff above 35, which implies the week is tracking toward the mid-to-high 20s. The high strikes above 75 are priced near zero, and the low strikes near certainty, so the tradeable action lives in the 25-to-35 range where the marginal transit swings a contract. A supply shock or a regional escalation would compress traffic and reprice the low end, but absent that, this is a shipping-data question, not a geopolitics one.