The market has this at 1%, and the reason is that the fight was resolved weeks early. Trump signed a stopgap into law on September 2, 2026, funding the government through December 11 and avoiding the October 1 lapse. The measure cleared with room to spare, passing the House 370 to 48 after the Senate's 90 to 6 vote. A year removed from the longest shutdown in modern history, both parties chose not to relitigate it before the midterms. The real contest moved to December 11, so if you want shutdown exposure, that's the date, not this one.
Prices are probabilities — our guides cover how to read them, how markets settle, and how we find an edge.