Newcastle at 61% looks like a routine home favorite until you check the form. The Magpies just shipped four at Leeds and sit 12th with a negative goal difference, while Hull arrive fourth, unbeaten in four, and have conceded two goals all season. That is a real defensive record against a Newcastle attack that has been leaky at both ends. St James' Park and squad depth still argue for the home side, and the promoted team eventually regresses. A 22% tie carries weight here given how compact Hull have played, so the honest question is whether you trust Newcastle's ceiling or Hull's floor.
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