Arminio at 99% reflects a race the Associated Press already called. He took Delaware's Republican House primary on September 15 with roughly 46% to John Whalen's 33% and Earl Cooper's 22%, so the market is pricing a settled outcome rather than a live contest. If you held Arminio through the count, the edge was recognizing that a three-way field with no dominant name-recognition candidate tends to reward the contender who owned a lane, and his economic messaging gave him one. The remaining pennies on Whalen and the others are settlement noise, not a real path. The interesting question moved downstream, to a November race rated Solid Democratic against incumbent Sarah McBride.
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