Brazil presidential election: first round winner?

This asks who leads the October 4 first round, not who wins outright, and Lula at 74% squares with polling that has him ahead in first-round scenarios even as runoff simulations sit at a statistical tie. Late Datafolha numbers put Lula near 40% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 36% in the first round, with Cury, Caiado and Santos splitting single digits. Flávio at 26% is the coherent contrarian side, since a race this polarized can compress fast and the two-round system means the first-round leader still likely faces a coin-flip runoff on October 25. What moves this is a right consolidating behind Flávio faster than the left expects, or Lula's incumbency advantage holding through election day.