Trump's approval rating on Sep 25, 2026?

This is a bucket market on a single RealClearPolitics number, and the mass has piled into the tails. The below-38.8 bucket carries the most weight while the aggregate has recently printed in the high 39s, which means the market is leaning on a downward drift rather than the last posted reading. RCP averages move slowly because a new poll only nudges a multi-survey mean, so the sharpest read is which polls roll on and off in the final days, not the headline mood. A single strong or weak survey entering the average can shift the landing spot by a tenth, and at these bucket widths a tenth is the whole trade.