This is a bucket market on where the RealClearPolitics average settles, and the shape tells you the number is parked in the high 39s. The 39.7 to 39.9 band leads at 32% and 40.0 to 40.2 sits at 17%, which brackets the roughly 39.5 the average has been showing lately. Approval aggregates move slowly, so a two-day window rarely jumps a full point without a poll shock or a fresh survey rolling into the trailing set. The tails are correctly cheap, with anything above 40.5 or below 38.8 in the low single digits. The live question is whether one strong or weak poll drops in before the close and nudges the average across a band edge.
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